Tranquil conditions continue, but active weather pattern expected to return
High pressure is slowly transitioning towards the Ohio Valley today, which will lead to a slight shift in the winds towards the northwest. Other than the wind shift, conditions will remain rather quiet throughout the northern Mid Atlantic, as least for now.
The water vapor satellite picture this morning shows an interesting separation between the Sub Tropical and Polar jet streams. Note that the low pressure over the Southeast will remain well south and east of the northern Mid Atlantic over the next 24 hours due to the Polar jet stream suppressing the low pressure system. An area of sinking air between the two jet streams is centered right over the Philadelphia metropolitan area through Long Island, which will lead to clear skies due to sinking air over the region. This sinking air will also support warm temperatures with many locations breaking well into the 60's, possibly upper 60's by this afternoon. Yes, it will be very difficult to concentrate this afternoon at work or school!
Now, these conditions are expected to continue through this weekend with clear skies and rather warm temperatures. In fact, I would not rule out the potential for highs hitting 70 degrees over the Delaware River Valley and some urban locations due to the strong sun shine and sinking motion of the atmosphere. However, the tranquil conditions will come to an end by the start of next week.
The upper level pattern will shift once again as the Sub Tropical jet stream begins to move north and west. This shift in the Sub Tropical jet stream will lead to a weak ridge over the Southeast coast and force a storm track through the Mid Atlantic. For example, the storm that is south and east of the region today would have been forced into the northern Mid Atlantic if this pattern shift had happened already. The first low pressure system is expected on late Sunday night through Monday in the form of a slow moving cold front. As the low pressure system moves through the Ohio Valley, the Polar jet stream will phase with the Sub Tropical disturbance to add a Polar air mass into the mix. The result will be periods of heavy rain with embedded thunderstorms through Monday evening.
The low pressure system will exit by Tuesday morning with a few lingering showers followed by clearing conditions. High pressure will take hold on Tuesday afternoon through Thursday with dry conditions, scattered to few clouds, and temperatures rebounding into the 50's and 60's. However, another area of low pressure with a similar storm track is expected by Friday and Saturday with periods of rain and potentially strong to severe thunderstorms.
Overall, the temperatures through the next seven days will remain relatively above normal, especially for this weekend. The new pattern that evolves for next week will bring a risk of severe weather returning to the region along with the potential for additional flash flooding.
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This is the second afternoon of perfect conditions with clear skies, low humidity, and temperatures pushing into the upper 50's to lower 60's along the immediate coast and lower to mid 60's throughout the rest of the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan areas.


High pressure this morning is producing clear skies with temperatures in the mid 30's to lower 40's throughout the northern Mid Atlantic. Clear skies can be expected through the day and into tonight with temperatures this afternoon expected to break into the lower to mid 60's throughout the region. The only exception will be the immediate coast where the Atlantic Ocean will keep temperatures slightly cooler in the upper 50's. A perfect day for St. Patrick's Day!
It's amazing how much weather conditions can change in less than 24 hours! Just this morning, overcast conditions dominated and the regions was still soaked from the five day rainfall event! This afternoon, conditions could not be much different with clear skies and much warmer temperatures as highs blew past forecasted temperatures into the upper 50's to mid 60's throughout the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan area. 







