Strong wind and rain this morning lead the way to Arctic blast

This morning a strong area of low pressure is racing into the St. Lawrence River Valley and forcing a warm front through Monmouth County.  The strong lifting of the warm front is producing very heavy rainfall with doppler radar estimated rainfall amounts of 1.50 to 2.00 inches.  The strong winds are due to the impressive pressure gradient between this intensify low pressure system and the exiting high pressure system over New England.  As the day progresses, the winds will slowly decrease.  In the meantime, visibility will be limited with the heavy rain and strong wind gusts.  At least it isn't ice.

The warm temperatures this afternoon will be like a cruel joke by tomorrow morning.  While temperatures this afternoon will peak in the mid to upper 50's throughout Monmouth County, as the cold front exits the coast this evening temperatures will quickly crash through the 40's and into the 30's.  A strong arctic air mass will take hold by tomorrow morning with temperatures barely budge through much of tomorrow.  High temperatures by tomorrow afternoon will be 20 degrees colder with highs in the ranging from 35 to 38 degrees for highs.  Similar cold conditions can be expect on Friday with lows in the mid 20's and highs in the upper 20's to lower 30's.  These temperatures are well below normal.

Looking at this weekend, another snow threat appears to be unfolding for the time period of Saturday evening through Sunday.  Model guidance is having significant problems with handling this pattern, but if one takes some basic observations and apply past history, the threat comes to life.  A negative NAO (a type of upper level structure that locks cold air along the coast) will be established while a strong Sub Tropical (El Nino influence) and a strong Arctic disturbance dive towards the Mid Atlantic coast.  The negative NAO pattern usually supports the potential for coastal and snow storms over New Jersey.  Timing of the two disturbances will be key in determining the track and strength of the coastal low and much is unknown.  However, the threat of a significant snow event is present.

Cold conditions will continue on through next week with another threat of snow, ice and/or rain by the middle of next week.

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