A variety of winter weather returns for early next week

by Steven DiMartino on February 19th, 2010 Comment

High pressure will continue to dominate much of the northern Mid Atlantic today through Sunday with scattered clouds and temperatures returning to near normal levels.  In fact, many locations along the coast will push into the lower 40's for highs, which will aid in slowly melting the snow pack over the region.

The next storm to impact the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan area is already taking shape over the Rockies and will move east this weekend towards the Ohio Valley by Monday morning.  Unlike previous storms, the focus of this storm will clearly be over interior locations like northeastern Pennsylvania, extreme northern New Jersey, the Hudson Valley, and interior Connecticut.  However, this storm will also have a significant impact on coastal locations due to the potential for significant flash flooding.  The combination of the melting snow pack and the heavy rain late Monday into Tuesday over much of coastal New Jersey, the New York City metropolitan area, Long Island, and southern Connecticut will lead to the potential for urban and small river flooding throughout the region.  Meanwhile, a mix of snow, sleet, and freezing rain is going to be a threat just inland over much of the Delaware River Valley through the central Hudson Valley.  Heavy snow will be a focus further north over the interior.

The coastal low is expected to take shape on Monday evening and move along the New Jersey coast on Tuesday morning before exiting south of Southern New England on Tuesday evening.  Colder temperatures will begin to work into the region on Tuesday evening, supporting a change over to snow for all locations, but only limited accumulations along the coast if any.

High pressure return for Wednesday with drier and colder conditions and a threat for much of the melted snow and left over ponding water to freeze into black ice.  Use caution on Wednesday morning!

Another storm is possible on Thursday evening as a Sub Tropical disturbance races on the heels of this exiting storm.  The development and track of this storm is very much uncertain, however another potential widespread impact is possible from this storm as the week ends.