Clearing the Roads in Freehold

Asbury Park Press photographer Doug Hood went for a ride-along with county worker Ron Boyce, an assistant supervisor in the Monmouth County Department of Public Works and Engineering, as he salted Kozloski Road Thursday afternoon.

Bob Dickerson, shift coordinator for the Monmouth County Department of Public Works and Engineering, keeps a close eye on the storm.

The county DPW maintains 1,000 miles of roads in the county, as well as parking lots for various facilities, including the county libraries.

Employees made several salt-spreading runs throughout the day, and planned to return to the roads between 2 and 4 a.m. today to get ready for the morning rush hour, according to John W. Tobia, director of the county Department of Public Works and Engineering.

For a peek into the busy life of a public works employee during a snowstorm, check out Doug's video here.

Freehold, Farmingdale residents dig out as road conditions worsen

Posted via APP.com:

As the Friday morning rush hour commenced, road conditions in the Freehold- Farmingdale area worsened as more vehicles churned the snow, creating slush on roadways.
Adding to the worsening conditions was added traffic as the day progressed, although traffic was light compared to a normal day.
Snow fell steadily, whipped here and there by the wind.

In Farmingdale, James Daly did what many of us have to do in a winter storm - dig out.
"Digging out to get to work," said Daly, 43, as he cleared his Walnut Street driveway with a snow-blower about 8 a.m. "I have no excuse, it's only 2 miles away."
Although Daly, who is president of the Borough Council, took the snow in stride, he said he "can't wait for it (winter) to be over." He said it "will make spring (seem) much better."
Lily, 4, and Noah, 1, both English cream golden retrievers, walked along
the borough's North Main Street amid the blowing and steady snowfall.
"They love their walk in the snow," said their owner, Joey Chapurtinov, 47.
While the canines enjoyed the snow, the human said he had enough.
"Losing work," said Chapurtinov, who works outdoors in construction. "Bad winter, you know?"
But Chapurtinov was dealing with it.
"I snow-blow, shovel, help the neighbors out," Chapurtinov said. "Everybody pitches in on our street."

Another significant snowfall on the way for Freehold

Here we go again!  Another major winter storm has a target for the northern Mid Atlantic with the potential for another one to two feet of snow for many locations in the New York City and Philadelphia metropolitan area along with very strong winds and near zero visibility for Wednesday morning.

The water vapor satellite image this morning displays all the players for this major winter storm.  The first feature to take note of is the strong upper low, enhanced by the last major low pressure system, over the Canadian Maritimes.  That is the 50N/50W upper low that is key for any significant winter storm.  This upper low is in a near text book position to support a major to potentially historic winter storm for the region.  The position of this feature on all guidance strongly supports a stormy track from North Carolina to the bench mark.  
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More snow on the way!

The area of low pressure that produced over a foot of snow over central New Jersey and up to 30 inches over much of southern New Jersey and the Philadelphia metropolitan area is now in the northern Atlantic.  This storm will enhance the negative NAO pattern, which will play a significant role in the development of the next threat by the middle of this week.  No rest for meteorologist this month!

The next storm, which will impact the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan area on Tuesday night through Thursday morning, is already developing to the west.  Two strong disturbances, one Sub Tropical and the other Polar, are moving on a collision course over the Mississippi Valley.
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FRHSD Reschedules ROTC Competition

The Freehold Regional High School District announced on its Web site that the Navy Junior Reserve Officers Training Corps drill competition was postponed due to the expected weather.

Members of the Colts Neck Guard, Colts Neck High School ROTC's armed drill exhibition team, watches as the Pride of Colts Neck, Colts Neck High School ROTC's unarmed drill exhibition team, performs at a fundraiser in 2009. Photo by BRADLEY J. PENNER/staff photographer.

The event will be rescheduled for Feb. 27 at Colts Neck High School.

Know of other canceled or reschedule events? Drop us a line so we can share the info: colleen@injersey.com.

Snow Moving In

The latest NASA weather photo of the snowstorm that is headed to our area later this afternoon and tomorrow:

http://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/

From APP.com: We’re asking readers this weekend to email us with snow totals for their area. Just measure the snow at your house and email weatherbuddies@app.com.  Our online producers will be posting the totals online.

Dangerous and complicated winter storm on the way for New Jersey

I have to admit, it is these types of forecasts that I love.  High risk, high reward.  Kind of like being a gambler in a way as the adrenaline is pumping.  The forecast for this storm is one of the most complicated forecasts I've had to make in over 8 years of professional forecasting and go back to 12 years since college.  However, at this point, I believe I have this forecast in a place that I feel comfortable going and will explain my reasoning in detail.

The process of this forecast was a combination of the GFS, SREF ensembles, and ECMWF guidance combined with my use of the past storm events and research of this type of storm and storm track.  For reference on potential impacts I researched the storms of February 18, 1979 and February 22, 1987 from the Northeast Snowstorms by Kocin and Uccellini.

This morning, it is clear that an impressive Sub Tropical upper level disturbance is starting to develop a strong area of low pressure out of the Gulf of Mexico.  Deep low, mid, and upper level moisture is surging northward towards the northern Mid Atlantic with source regions from the southern Pacific via the strong Sub Tropical jet stream, the Gulf Coast, and starting to develop from the Caribbean and western Atlantic.  There is no doubt that this storm is going to have plenty of moisture to work with.  The question has been and continues to be how far does this storm and the precipitation shield move north?  I believe I have the answer.
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Uncertainty remains as major winter storm heads east

I would love to say this morning that I know exactly what this storm is going to do and that I have complete confidence in the way the models are handling the moisture advection at the mid levels, the expansion of the precipitation shield, and the strength of the Sub Tropical disturbance.  If I could say that, then this forecast would be very easy.  Of course, I can't say that and this morning, while issuing the first snowfall map, I am also going to address my concerns with this storm.

To the left is the snowfall forecast I am currently going with based on all the guidance I have available and some tweaking via observations of the radar and satellite images.  My original forecast for a moderate snowfall event for northeastern Pennsylvania through the New York City metropolitan area remains with generally 3 to 6 inches for New York City and 2 to 4 inches to the north over Connecticut and the Hudson Valley.  The heavier precipitation and best lifting will be focused to the south as this storm is expected to really nail Washington D.C. and Baltimore with potentially over 20 inches of snow.  The Philadelphia metropolitan area will come in to 6 to 12 inches of snowfall with higher amounts over southern and southeastern New Jersey of 10 to 15 inches of snow.  Cape May, New Jersey is looking like the prime area to be for regional snow lovers as up to 20 inches of snow will be possible.  Go figure!  Who would have thought Cape May, New Jersey would end up with more snow this season than Allentown, Pennsylvania?
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Scattered snow showers this afternoon appetizer for this weekend

A weak low pressure system is approaching from the Ohio Valley this morning that will interact with a Sub Tropical disturbance this evening along the Mid Atlantic coast.  This low pressure system will redevelop east of Delaware, producing scattered snow showers throughout the New York City and Philadelphia metropolitan areas this afternoon through tonight.

The progressive nature of the pattern over the next 24 hours will prevent this low pressure system from slowing down and deepening off the New Jersey coast, but instead intensify well into the north Atlantic.  As a result, no significant accumulation from the snow showers are expected.  However, a few snow showers will be able to produce a quick burst of snowfall this evening through tomorrow morning, which may have an impact on travel conditions for the rush hour periods.  Otherwise, no appreciable accumulations are expected as this low pressure system exits to the east.
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Arctic cold grips New Jersey as storm exits

The low pressure system that brought over 6 inches of snow to many locations throughout southern New Jersey is exiting into the Atlantic.  Behind it, an Arctic air mass remains in control with temperatures in the single digits and teens for morning lows.
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Arctic cold start to the day, snow on the way!

There's a lot to cover this morning!  So let's get to it!

The area of precipitation that will impact the northern Atlantic this afternoon through this evening is currently developing over the Tennessee Valley and western Virginia under the influence of the strong Sub Tropical disturbance that is driving towards the Mid Atlantic coast.  The surface low meanwhile is driving into southwestern Georgia and will move towards the North Carolina coast by this evening.
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Arctic cold conditions expected through the weekend

In case you haven't realized from the gusty winds from last night, Arctic air has arrived for the New York City and Philadelphia metropolitan areas.  Temperatures this morning are in the single digits and teens over many interior locations and mid to upper 10's along the coast with a gusty northwesterly wind around 10 to 15 mph creating wind chills ranging from -5° F to 5° F.  In short, it is cold!
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Return to cold conditions as snow threat increases for this weekend

A weak disturbance behind the exiting cold front from yesterday, which produced rainfall amounts well over an inch in many locations, flash flooding, and some wind damage, has produced a few rain and snow showers early this morning, but is exiting into the Atlantic.  A deep Polar trough is become established over the eastern United States with a variety of weak disturbances rotating through the Mid Atlantic.  However, surface high pressure will be the primary influence today through Thursday morning with generally dry conditions and temperatures returning to near normal levels for this time of year.

All eyes are drawn to the end of the week and this weekend where the potential for significant accumulating snowfall returns to the region.
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Heavy rain impacting morning rush hour, threat for significant snowfall growing for this weekend

This morning, an impressive cold front is moving through central Pennsylvania and producing heavy rainfall throughout the Philadelphia and New York City metropolitan areas.  The cold front will continue to progress east this morning and exit the New Jersey coast by 12 PM and eastern Long Island by 2 PM.

The rainfall with this cold front will be heavy at times, leading to flash flooding of streams, small rivers, and urban locations at times.  Temperatures ahead of this cold front are very warm with most locations in the lower to mid 50's and Philadelphia in the upper 50's pushing close to 60 degrees this morning!  However, as the cold front exits, strong cold air advection will force temperatures to fall through the 50's, 40's, and eventually the 30's by late this evening with a gusty northwesterly wind.
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Heavy rain on the way, a return to winter next week!

There is no doubt that heavy rain is on the way as a significant surge of moisture races north ahead of a powerful cold front.

Clouds will continue to increase and lower through the day as a strong southwesterly flow from the surface to mid levels pushes a warm and moist air mass into the region.  Temperatures will average above normal through the next 24 hours with temperatures rising through the 40's and into the 50's this evening and overnight.  Rain will begin to push into the Philadelphia metropolitan area late tonight around mid night and continue to move east through the New York City metropolitan area early tomorrow morning.

The rain will be very heavy at times, producing flash flooding and rapidly reduced visibility through the morning rush hour.  Combined with the heavy rain threat will be embedded thunderstorms within the rain shield that will lead to strong wind gusts possibly pushing over 40 mph at times.  A strong 850 MB jet streak around 3o KT to 45 KT will support isolated downbursts within these thunderstorms.  The rain will be heaviest from 6 AM to 2 PM with rainfall amounts ranging from one to two inches of rain.  Flooding of streams, small rivers, and urban locations are likely from this cold front passage.  The cold front will exit by tomorrow afternoon between 2 PM and 5 PM with temperatures rapidly falling through the 50's, 40's and 30's with morning lows on Tuesday morning in the 20's and 30's.

Once the cold front passes, a new pattern will become established with a return to much colder conditions mirroring the temperature profile of early January.  Temperatures on Tuesday will still average near normal with the immediate coast approaching 40 degrees.  However, from Wednesday through Friday temperatures will average below normal with highs in the 20's and 30's throughout the region.  A series of weak cold fronts will keep the threat of scattered snow showers in the forecast through the week with some minor accumulations in isolated locations.

The main story is the developments at the end of the week.  Model guidance is strong converging on a solution that will bring a potentially significant snowfall to much of the northern Mid Atlantic.  This storm appears to develop in two parts.  The first is an isentropic lifting driven snowfall with a thermal gradient at 850 MB over 12°C and a surface gradient forecasted to range from 20° F on Friday afternoon to over 30° F on Friday night from the coastal waters to the interior.  This strong thermal gradient will be set up ahead of the actual coastal low development on early Saturday morning, and strongly argues for an impressive isentropic lifting environment.  Model guidance is attempting to forecast the potential snowfall for this scenario, but likely is under-forecasting the potential influence of frontogenesis and mesoscale lifting parameters like banding of precipitation.  This gradient also strongly argues for a rapidly unstable atmosphere and thunder snow may have to be considered on Friday evening given the atmospheric set up.

The coastal low takes over as the dominant feature of this storm on Saturday morning with heavy snow focused along the immediate coast.  The exact track of this storm is still uncertain and will be an important detail, however a significant majority of the guidance strongly suggest that the atmosphere will support an all frozen if not all snow event for this storm.  A significant snowfall from Friday afternoon through the day on Saturday is growing and looks likely.

Go to NY NJ PA Weather for the latest analysis and coverage of weather events around New Jersey!