Blizzard conditions return to Freehold and Monmouth County

A significant winter storm is beginning to develop over the Gulf Coast that will bring the entire forecast area heavy snowfall and very strong winds.  The most significant impacts will be focused towards the coastal plain once again, where many locations have experienced one of the snowiest winters of all time.  This storm will likely push this year's snowfall totals to number one on the list, especially around central and southern New Jersey and Philadelphia.

This morning, the water vapor satellite image shows the developing upper level disturbances that will produce this dangerous winter storm.  The Polar disturbance is diving towards the Ohio Valley with a weak surface representation over the northern Tennessee Valley.  Meanwhile, the Sub Tropical disturbance is starting to tilt negative and beginning to phase with the Polar disturbance.  The phasing of these two disturbances will create an intense upper level low over the Ohio Valley and then Virginia that will spawn a rapidly deepening coastal low tonight through tomorrow off the Mid Atlantic coast.  The intensity of this low pressure will fall to below 980 MB possibly reaching 975 MB before exiting the New Jersey coastal waters.  This intense low pressure system will have plenty of moisture to work with from the Sub Tropical jet stream and a well established and sustained Polar air mass over much of the Mid Atlantic.

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Another significant snowfall on the way for Freehold

Here we go again!  Another major winter storm has a target for the northern Mid Atlantic with the potential for another one to two feet of snow for many locations in the New York City and Philadelphia metropolitan area along with very strong winds and near zero visibility for Wednesday morning.

The water vapor satellite image this morning displays all the players for this major winter storm.  The first feature to take note of is the strong upper low, enhanced by the last major low pressure system, over the Canadian Maritimes.  That is the 50N/50W upper low that is key for any significant winter storm.  This upper low is in a near text book position to support a major to potentially historic winter storm for the region.  The position of this feature on all guidance strongly supports a stormy track from North Carolina to the bench mark.  
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Winter Storm Overview

Yesterday a significant winter storm impacted Monmouth County with very heavy snowfall, strong winds, and reduced visibility.  This was the second major winter storm this winter season (the first being the Pre Christmas Blizzard of December 19-20, 2009) that produced near white out conditions and over a foot of snow for many locations of Monmouth County.

The snow gradient for this storm will go down in the record books as Philadelphia exceed 25 inches while Central Park in New York had only a trace at most.  Monmouth County however, was not so luck with over 6 inches of snow over extreme northern Monmouth County and over 10 inches of snow over the rest of the county.  Most locations from Freehold on south exceeded a foot of snow from this storm.

While many Freeholders dig out of this heavy snowfall, another major winter storm is on the way with the potential for similar if not higher snowfall totals for the region through the day on Wednesday.  This time, this storm may have more impacts due to the storm happening in the middle of the work week.

Dangerous and complicated winter storm on the way for New Jersey

I have to admit, it is these types of forecasts that I love.  High risk, high reward.  Kind of like being a gambler in a way as the adrenaline is pumping.  The forecast for this storm is one of the most complicated forecasts I've had to make in over 8 years of professional forecasting and go back to 12 years since college.  However, at this point, I believe I have this forecast in a place that I feel comfortable going and will explain my reasoning in detail.

The process of this forecast was a combination of the GFS, SREF ensembles, and ECMWF guidance combined with my use of the past storm events and research of this type of storm and storm track.  For reference on potential impacts I researched the storms of February 18, 1979 and February 22, 1987 from the Northeast Snowstorms by Kocin and Uccellini.

This morning, it is clear that an impressive Sub Tropical upper level disturbance is starting to develop a strong area of low pressure out of the Gulf of Mexico.  Deep low, mid, and upper level moisture is surging northward towards the northern Mid Atlantic with source regions from the southern Pacific via the strong Sub Tropical jet stream, the Gulf Coast, and starting to develop from the Caribbean and western Atlantic.  There is no doubt that this storm is going to have plenty of moisture to work with.  The question has been and continues to be how far does this storm and the precipitation shield move north?  I believe I have the answer.
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Uncertainty remains as major winter storm heads east

I would love to say this morning that I know exactly what this storm is going to do and that I have complete confidence in the way the models are handling the moisture advection at the mid levels, the expansion of the precipitation shield, and the strength of the Sub Tropical disturbance.  If I could say that, then this forecast would be very easy.  Of course, I can't say that and this morning, while issuing the first snowfall map, I am also going to address my concerns with this storm.

To the left is the snowfall forecast I am currently going with based on all the guidance I have available and some tweaking via observations of the radar and satellite images.  My original forecast for a moderate snowfall event for northeastern Pennsylvania through the New York City metropolitan area remains with generally 3 to 6 inches for New York City and 2 to 4 inches to the north over Connecticut and the Hudson Valley.  The heavier precipitation and best lifting will be focused to the south as this storm is expected to really nail Washington D.C. and Baltimore with potentially over 20 inches of snow.  The Philadelphia metropolitan area will come in to 6 to 12 inches of snowfall with higher amounts over southern and southeastern New Jersey of 10 to 15 inches of snow.  Cape May, New Jersey is looking like the prime area to be for regional snow lovers as up to 20 inches of snow will be possible.  Go figure!  Who would have thought Cape May, New Jersey would end up with more snow this season than Allentown, Pennsylvania?
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Major winter storm to impact Monmouth County

As I woke up this morning to look at the 06Z guidance, I had to laugh to myself.  Models converging on an idea for this storm?  Yeah right!  Of course, who thought this was going to be easy.

This morning I went to a tried and true method that I learned back in college and it is called learning from the past.  This storm is roughly 24 hours away from impacting the northern Mid Atlantic one way or another.  Based on previous storms over the past 50 years, the 500 MB pattern in place this morning strongly supports a heavy snowfall over the New York City and Philadelphia metropolitan areas.

As for the model guidance, if I was to pick a combo that is best dealing with the current develops and what will follow in the next 3 days, I would go with a combination of the UKMET and the ECMWF guidance with some tweaking on the QPF to deal with mesoscale issues, which I'll cover in a moment.  These models have been the most consistent for the most part in the overall idea of this storm.
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The winter forecast for 2009/2010 season

It's that time of year again where forecasters are thrown into a battle royal for best winter forecaster and that battle begins with the seasonal winter weather forecast.  To be perfectly honest, I have never really considered myself a long range/seasonal forecaster.  My love and my strength (I guess one feeds the other) has always been the medium and short range territory.  However, if you don't challenge yourself and put yourself outside of your comfort zone, you don't grow.  That's true no matter what you do.  I think that's why I took poetry in college.  Oh boy, what a disaster.

There are several factors I looked at to make this forecast.  I want to discuss the data I used and the thought process before diving into the forecast.

Method:

The process of developing the forecast took around two months to formulate.  I studied the various years of weak and moderate El Nino ENSO states and their impacts on the North American cold season pattern.  I did not use the seasons as a copy for this season, but I wanted to examine the range of possibilities from El Nino years.

Read the full forecast after the jump:
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